Friday, 12 February 2010

Doctor's Dilemma

Here’s a dilemma for you from the psychologists, Tversky and Kahneman. They asked the following to a group of doctors

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease. It is expected to kill 600 people.

Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed.

If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If program B is adopted, there is a one third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.

Which of the two programs would you favor?

What do you think?

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